Sunday, February 12, 2012

Mea What????? Why Von Miller is Still Overrated

Sometimes it is hard to acknowledge a defeat. I am still grappling with a one goal loss to Providence Country Day in 7th grade soccer (I know embarrassing). The one good thing is that I didn't have to deal with any type of disappointment during this years NFL season. Both the owners and the players should be embarrassed. Losing 9 billion in revenue and an entire season of playing is just not okay. As a Patriots fan I am extra angry because this is just another year (2007 & 2008 being the other two) of Tom Brady's career that is lost. Since I am so angry I decided to act like a bully and take out my anger on someone who is weaker than me.....Von Miller.
I remember my first coverage sack....loser
My hatred for Von Miller is well documented. Instead of just ranting again, I decided go back and see how Miller did regarding my analysis that he was overrated and deserved a 2nd round grade.

Reason #1Von Miller still sucks SizeAs a 3-4 outside linebacker Miller is grossly undersized. Standing at 6’2 and weighing 237 Miller is too light to play the 7 technique in the NFL. 

The number one problem with being undersized is that you wear down during the course of the season. Miller showed that he simply could not stay productive as the season wore on. The statistics back this up.

In the first 10 weeks of Miller registered
47 tackles
9.5 sacks

Now lets look at the final 7 weeks of his season (including the playoffs)
20 tackles
3 sacks

Making his late season slump even worse was that if you looked at his last 5 games these were his stats.
5 tackles
1 sack
Wow! Von Miller is as soft as tissue paper and is a mediocre niche specialist at best. Now lets compare him with other rookies who play similar positions and are much heavier in the pants.

First 10 games
Von Miller        47 Tackles, 9.5 Sacks
Jabaal Sheard    31 tackles, 3.5 Sacks
Brooks Reed     27 tackles, 5 sacks
Ryan Kerrigan   44 tackles, 6 sacks
Aldon Smith     15 Tackles, 6.5 Sacks

As you can see Miller got off to a very fast start. The one thing I will give him is that he has some good pass rushing moves and speed off the line. I have never doubted that. The one problem is that he can't sustain that performance with his slight build. Lets take a look at how he compares with the other rookies down the stretch.

Last 7 Games
Von Miller 20 tackles, 3 sacks
Jabaal Sheard 26 tackles, 6 sacks
Brooks Reed 27 tackles, 4.5 sacks
Ryan Kerrigan 26 tackles, 4.5 sacks
Aldon Smith 21tackles, 8.5 sacks
Aldon Smith > Von Miller
This is amazing! Not only is Miller's performance mediocre at best, but it is the worst of any of the other rookies on this list. Making this even worse is that other than Brooks Reed, Miller plays with the best supporting cast (Elvis Dumervil).

Reason #2 Von Miller still sucks Productivity: "Although miller was productive in college his numbers are deceiving. In 2009 Miller got 11 of his 16.5 sacks against teams with losing records."

I know, you probably think that I am being too hard on poor Von, I mean he did get 12.5 sacks after all. Does it really matter when these sacks occur in the season? If that is your hangup lets take an even closer look at his sack totals.

I decided to compare Miller's performance against football outsiders rankings of the top offensive lines in the NFL. Here is what I found.

Top 10 pass blocking O-line: 4.5 (in 10 games)= .045 sacks per game
Middle 10 pass blocking O-line: 3 (in 3 games)= 1 sacks per game
Bottom 12 pass blocking O-Line: 5 (in 4 games)= 1.25 sacks per game

Wow! Look at this. Miller averaged under a half a sack a game against top offensive lines. In addition, he racked up sacks against mediocre and bad competition. To give him the benefit of the doubt I will say that he played way more games against good offensive lines, but that doesn't alter the fact that Von Miller chokes against good competition.
Von Miller had 1 tackle and 0 sacks against the Patriots in two games....yeah I know he sucks
Now lets look at Miller against the run.

Against Top 10 Run blocking O-lines: 26 Tackles (7 games)= 3.71 per game
Against Middle 10 Run Blocking O-Lines: 22 tackles (5 games)= 4.4 per game
Against Bottom 12 Run Blocking O-Lines: 19 Tackles (5 games)= 3.8 per game

Although these numbers are not as glaring, a troubling pattern continues to emerge. Miller performs admirably against mediocre and bad competition compared to against good competition. What saves Miller hear is that he got 10 tackles against San Diego who ranks as the 8th best run blocking offensive line. If you take that game out he averages 2.6 tackles per game against top offensive lines.

Bottom Line: "Miller can become a solid situational pass rusher who has the ability to rack of splash plays in bunches. Someone like Tully Banta Cain comes to mind when thinking about Miller’s prospects in the NFL."

This is the one area where I disagree with myself.....I was too nice. The actual bottom line is  that I hate this man with all my heart and that he is dreadfully overrated.


John Hendrie said...

This is so awesome. Great journalism. It's officially draft time again and I can't wait. Great job Davey.

rik0366 said...

I absolutely agree that Von Miller is an overrated player, and is a passing down specialist at best. But, that being said his drop off in the latter half of the season was due in part to his hand injury. Just thought I'd mention it.


Anonymous said...

I am glad to see some Aldon Smith love here. Everyone was drinking the Von Miller kool aid and largely ignored Smith. Last season, Smith was a much more productive pass rusher and--get this--he didn't start a single game. He only played in about half of the team's snaps last year, and put up better numbers!

Yeah, I know this blog post is old. I just stumbled on this. I knew I couldn't have been the only person who thought Miller was being given too much credit.

Anonymous said...

now everyone probably realizes how stupid they are. Other than watt miller is the best defensive player. He doesn't have a justin smith but yet still gets more sacks per rush attempt. not to mention more FF. also the fact he fell off his rookie year had a whole lot to do with a torn tendon in his hand... but you decided to leave that out didn't you.