Friday, April 1, 2011
Why Von Miller is Overrated
Von Miller is high on almost everybody’s draft board. Both McShay and Kiper have him #2 on their respective big boards. Unlike the “experts” I give Miller a 2nd round grade for the following reasons.
Size: As a 3-4 outside linebacker Miller is grossly undersized. Standing at 6’2 and weighing 237 Miller is too light to play the 7 technique in the NFL. To put Miller’s size in perspective here are the following height and weight of some of the NFL’s top OLBs:
Demarcus Ware 6’4 262,
Tamba Hali 6’3 275,
Cameron Wake 6’3 250,
Clay Matthews 6’3 255,
John Abraham 6’4 263,
Terrell Suggs 6’2 260,
Shaun Phillps 6’3 250
Lamar Woodley 6’2 265
At this point the Miller camp will probably point to two player comparisons to help poor Von out (James Harrison and Elvis Dumervil). Even these smaller OLBs, however, are significantly bulkier than Miller (Harrison is 6’0 240 and Dumervill is 5’11 248). Making matters worse for miller is that is frame is not only light but distributed horribly. He is light in the pants and even if he puts on some weight it will not help him much when it comes to anchoring against the run. Bottom line is that you don’t take someone #2 as an OLB if he is incapable of sealing the edge.
Instincts: “going to need time to adjust to angles and overall awareness at the LB position. When aligned at LB during film study did false step on occasion and needs to take better angles with run fits. Flashes ability to recognize screens but can get caught too far upfield against draw plays.”-Scouts Inc.
Productivity: Although miller was productive in college his numbers are deceiving. In 2009 Miller got 11 of his 16.5 sacks against teams with losing records. In fact 8 of his sacks came in his team’s first three games against New Mexico, Utah State, and UAB. His 2009 TFL stats are not much better. Out of his 21.5 TFLs 12.5 came against losing teams and 8 out of his 21.5 TFLs came in the first three games of the season.
Even more alarming than his deceiving 2009 stats is Miller’s drop off in 2010. In 2010 Miller had 3 sacks and 5.5 TFLs 8 games into the season. What the stats tell me is that Miller racks of stats in artificial and non-important ways.
Bottom Line: Miller can become a solid situational pass rusher who has the ability to rack of splash plays in bunches. Someone like Tully Banta Cain comes to mind when thinking about Miller’s prospects in the NFL. Although I value TBC I would not draft him before the early to mid 2nd round. For these reasons above I rated Miller as the 34th best prospect in the 2011 Draft.