Saturday, April 2, 2011
Revisiting my QB Rating System
After writing my last post about how to evaluate a QB in the draft I was overwhelmed by Christian Ponder's studdlyness. Although the Parcell's model is interesting I wanted to continue to delve into the QB analysis of this draft. What I did was to take the 27 first round QBs taken in the 2000s and compare their college comp % and TD/INT ratio with their NFL QB rating. Here is what the table looks like.
Name | TD/Int | Comp% | NFl QB Rating |
6.25 | 67.9 | 76.5 | |
4.2 | 67.8 | 82.1 | |
2.5 | 61.4 | 67.1 | |
3.4 | 65.8 | 70.2 | |
2.5 | 58.6 | 82.2 | |
1.631579 | 59.3 | 86.9 | |
4.6 | 63.5 | 87.9 | |
3.5 | 67.8 | 65.2 | |
4.428571 | 61.9 | 66.8 | |
2.5 | 65.2 | 75.4 | |
Matt Leinart | 3.5 | 65.7 | 70.8 |
2.333333 | 59.1 | 84.3 | |
8.5 | 67.4 | 72.1 | |
3 | 66.1 | 98.4 | |
2.857143 | 69.6 | 82.6 | |
2.9 | 62.4 | 80.2 | |
4.857143 | 72 | 97.2 | |
3.1 | 69.1 | 92.5 | |
2.222222 | 57.7 | 62.6 | |
3.3 | 63.2 | 86.9 | |
3.178571 | 65.1 | 79.6 | |
1.2 | 49.3 | 70.4 | |
2.833333 | 65.6 | 70.9 | |
5.111111 | 64.9 | 74.9 | |
2.565217 | 55.2 | 69.4 | |
1.692308 | 57.1 | 74.9 | |
1.285714 | 54.2 | 80.2 |
The results were a bit surprising. TD/INT ratio in college has very little to do with NFL success while college comp% is pretty important. When you combine the two variables, the projectoins become significantly significant (95%). So what did I do with these numbers????? I took the five top QB prospects in this draft and projected how they will fair in the NFL.
Name | College Comp % | Projected QB Rating |
Christian Ponder | 68.8 | 89.17 |
Cam Newton | 66.1 | 86.74 |
Ryan Mallet | 64.7 | 85.48 |
Blaine Gabbert | 63.4 | 84.31 |
Jake Locker | 55.4 | 77.11 |
So What do these numbers tell us? If means that Ponder is projected to end up like Joe Flacco, Newton like Carson Palmer, Mallet like Jay Cutler, Gabbert like Jason Campbell, and Locker like David Carr or Vince Young.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
4 comments:
Kyle Boller's college stats were ATROCIOUS!!!!!!!
When did Davey turn into Stephen Hawking? Love it.
Soom, I'm convinced Newsome didn't pull the trigger on Boller. It has owner pick written all over it. QB's sell tickets.
I could only find Boller's stats for his Junior year. I think he was a one year wonder. I still think he sucks though.
Boller's stats SR year: 28 tds/10 ints (2.1 ratio); 53.4% comp.
I wouldn't exactly put that in the "one-year wonder" category. That's not even "one-year Jay Cutler" status. Ughghhh
Post a Comment