Saturday, April 2, 2011
Projecting the 2011 WR Class
Covering the NFL draft can be a tricky proposition. Many of the things stated thus far both on my big board and on my “draft steals” sections have been acquired through subjective measures. All of this analysis, however, has got me thinking about ways to project NFL success . What I did with my roommate Josh was to see how 40 times and college receiving yards impacted rookie receiving yards. The results were both intriguing and statistically significant. We compiled a list of receivers taken in the first 3 rounds during the 2010,2009,and 2008 drafts with their 40 times and their college receiving stats. The table below is an example of what we compiled.
Name | 40 Time | College Receiving Yards | Rookie Receiving Yards |
4.38 | 1154 | 283 | |
4.52 | 1480 | 561 | |
4.42 | 1055 | 379 | |
4.36 | 1080 | 227 | |
4.53 | 707 | 195 | |
4.58 | 929 | 468 | |
4.41 | 1339 | 376 | |
4.6 | 1485 | 600 | |
4.54 | 758 | 113 | |
4.49 | 1334 | 307 | |
4.43 | 0 | 0 | |
4.41 | 784 | 41 |
Based on the information we discovered that 11% of a rookies receiving yards can be explained by their combine 40 time and every .0001 faster they are at the 40 results in an extra yard of rookie receiving
We then did the same process in order to find the relationship between a rookies college receiving production and their rookie production. The results show that for every 100 extra receiving yards a player gets in college turn into 28 more yards in their rookie year.
Finally, we combined the two variables (40 time and college yards) and discovered that 32% of a rookies production can be explained by these two factors. Here is where it gets interesting. Below I created a table for this years receivers graded out in the first 3 rounds. I used what we have discovered about 40 times to project how successful they will be in the pros.
RFH Formula
Name | 40 Time | CRY | Projected Yards |
Julio Jones | 4.39 | 1133 | 485.0845 |
Torrey Smith | 4.37 | 1055 | 480.8975 |
Titus Young | 4.43 | 1215 | 464.0805 |
Leonard Hankerson | 4.45 | 1156 | 413.8785 |
Jonathan Baldwin | 4.45 | 822 | 281.2805 |
Jerrel Jernigan | 4.47 | 822 | 254.5015 |
AJ Green | 4.48 | 848 | 251.434 |
Randle Cobb | 4.45 | 447 | 132.4055 |
Tandon Doss | 4.55 | 706 | 101.3335 |
Greg Little | 4.56 | 724 | 95.09 |
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2 comments:
Wow. Amazing analysis. Clearly there are 4 receivers at the top before a major drop off. I just so happen to love all 4 of them. I love when I can selectively find stats to back up my gut. Do you think maybe AJ Green is a little low because of his competition? Obviously Julio is number 1.
A.J is the problem with this stat. He missed 4 games otherwise he would have fit in better. Realistically it is Julio and AJ then everyone else.
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