Saturday, April 2, 2011

Revisiting my QB Rating System


After writing my last post about how to evaluate a QB in the draft I was overwhelmed by Christian Ponder's studdlyness. Although the Parcell's model is interesting I wanted to continue to delve into the QB analysis of this draft. What I did was to take the 27 first round QBs taken in the 2000s and compare their college comp % and TD/INT ratio with their NFL QB rating. Here is what the table looks like.




Name

TD/Int

Comp%

NFl QB Rating


6.25

67.9

76.5


4.2

67.8

82.1


2.5

61.4

67.1


3.4

65.8

70.2


2.5

58.6

82.2


1.631579

59.3

86.9


4.6

63.5

87.9


3.5

67.8

65.2


4.428571

61.9

66.8


2.5

65.2

75.4

Matt Leinart

3.5

65.7

70.8


2.333333

59.1

84.3


8.5

67.4

72.1


3

66.1

98.4


2.857143

69.6

82.6


2.9

62.4

80.2


4.857143

72

97.2


3.1

69.1

92.5


2.222222

57.7

62.6


3.3

63.2

86.9


3.178571

65.1

79.6


1.2

49.3

70.4


2.833333

65.6

70.9


5.111111

64.9

74.9


2.565217

55.2

69.4


1.692308

57.1

74.9


1.285714

54.2

80.2

The results were a bit surprising. TD/INT ratio in college has very little to do with NFL success while college comp% is pretty important. When you combine the two variables, the projectoins become significantly significant (95%). So what did I do with these numbers????? I took the five top QB prospects in this draft and projected how they will fair in the NFL.


Name

College Comp %

Projected QB Rating

Christian Ponder

68.8

89.17

Cam Newton

66.1

86.74

Ryan Mallet

64.7

85.48

Blaine Gabbert

63.4

84.31

Jake Locker

55.4

77.11

So What do these numbers tell us? If means that Ponder is projected to end up like Joe Flacco, Newton like Carson Palmer, Mallet like Jay Cutler, Gabbert like Jason Campbell, and Locker like David Carr or Vince Young.

4 comments:

Sumner Widdoes said...

Kyle Boller's college stats were ATROCIOUS!!!!!!!

John Hendrie said...

When did Davey turn into Stephen Hawking? Love it.

Soom, I'm convinced Newsome didn't pull the trigger on Boller. It has owner pick written all over it. QB's sell tickets.

Dave Hendrie said...

I could only find Boller's stats for his Junior year. I think he was a one year wonder. I still think he sucks though.

Sumner Widdoes said...

Boller's stats SR year: 28 tds/10 ints (2.1 ratio); 53.4% comp.

I wouldn't exactly put that in the "one-year wonder" category. That's not even "one-year Jay Cutler" status. Ughghhh